What is going on in the Hattrick transfer market? A player I had no trouble buying for €1,300,000 two seasons ago now costs at least €3,000,000(€3,500,000 to be secure). A more reliable source gives data as follows :
The line graph shows players with Titanic attribute (goalkeeping and playmaking, all ages) in sale prices and the bars show the numbers of sales of the specific players in Germany from the end of season 32 to season 35. A very clear pattern any eye could observe is how the line increases and the bar dips at the start of Season 34. More about that later.
In reality, as society progress, price increase is somehow inevitable. With the increase of income levels, the spending power is also increased. It all seems very clear to be an effect of The New Contract at the end of Season 33 – more earnings from supporters and fans. For a look at the price development of Hattrick, take a Titanic midfielder, 22 years and passable form (our subject player). €1,300,000 in Season 33 and shooting up to over €3,000,000 in Season 34 onwards. There was however a little period of time (early Season 33) where a similar player could be bought for a price sub-1,000,000. But that was just a low in the market. A stable price for the past seasons was €1,300,000. The greatest price surge could probably be observe in players Mythical and above, from total worthless (less than €250,000) to a price of around €1,000,000 – 2,500,000 before stabling down in Season 35. For players around the Solid capability, much change wasn’t observed. For the purpose of this article, we will be putting our main focus on the mainstream players (worldclass-titanic).
There are two likely happenings in the near future : one, the transfer market stays within 10% aggregate of now, just like in the world where people earn more and prices increase. A chance of an occasional inflation, but if we are looking at that, we could say that the peak had alraedy been achieved. From the end of Season 33 where prices start to increase day by day, it went to a point where our subject player sells for €4,250,000, stabilizing later at around €3,250,000. The continued rise was unexpected by many, until it finally reach the point where people were not willing to offer anymore. So sellers kept their expectations low. It can be seen like this :
A second prediction would be that it was just a normal Hattrick thing where prices rise, and it would fall back to the €1,300,000 one day. I wouldn’t think that is true. Falling back to the dear 1.3million may eventually happen, but not in the field of our vision. The increase in price we are facing this time has a reason. A clear and simple reason – people getting more money to spend. And unless people lose their income, there shouldn’t be a situation of price stabilizing at a lower value anymore. If we look into the real world, look at Singapore. A develop country today which prices were once lower than neigbouring Malaysia. Singapore just became richer and richer and today, cost of living is more than double that of its neighbour. What I am trying to say here is that when society gets higher (precisely more income), the price of everything increases. It’s natural and not something happening where there’s a shortage of supply and prices shoot up for the moment.
As you can see in the chart above – the green bar moves up a level. Maybe you would observe the difference between the stable black lines and the green bars are different at the stable start and end point of the chart. That’s the point of it, and a glitter of hope for this second prediction. While income had just risen by less than 50%, prices had increased by 200-300%. Would the market drop and make the 200% back to the supposed 50% rise? If so, the stabilized drop should mean €1,500,000 , no longer €1,300,000. Another viewpoint is that we shouldn’t count it by percentage, but by the extra money teams are starting to get, and that we should take the whole transfer market into consideration. It’s terribly hard to predict whats going to happen. Earth faces it and so does Hattrick.
On a lesser perspective, let’s look to the people around us (in Hattrick). Just look in your league and the news of transfers. How many are there? It had been considerably low with only youth players and anything cheap going around these days. And just look at the data of the first chart. The conclusion – people are suffering from the current price. Many are holding off buying plans for the moment, although there are some who can’t wait anymore. However since the changes in the past season had given people deep pockets, I believe I have enough evidence to say that the market will fall not too long from now – only to climb back quickly again.
Credits to HTPE for the use of their transfer market graphs.
